A Plan to Democratize the Electoral College
by Roger S. Scott, March 14, 2021
During and after each presidential election many of us complain that the electoral college is undemocratic and our vote does not count. In 2020 Biden won the popular vote by a margin of seven million votes or 51.3%, but he won three states (Arizona, Wisconsin and Georgia) giving him over 270 electoral votes by a total of only 42,844 popular votes. Biden’s popular vote 4.5% margin over Trump is the second largest since 2000. Even so, Trump could have been re-elected if those 42,844 citizens had not voted in spite of Biden’s wide popular vote margin. The popular/electoral divide has grown and may increase even more. Each time the anger on the unfairness of this result increases and so does the understandable perception that elections won by the popular vote loser are illegitimate. In the last eight Presidential elections, the Democratic candidate won the popular vote in seven out of eight elections, but the Republicans were in the White House for three terms, which is one reason that reform efforts are blocked. The one exception was George W. Bush’s second term.
The loopholes in the U.S. Constitution and the enabling legislation regarding the electoral college create a dangerous and unstable threat to democracy as the former president’s near re-election has ably demonstrated to us. Nick Licata wrote two essays explaining the risks we are taking by continuing the status quo. https://nicklicata.medium.com/trumps-last-chance-pence-counts-the-electoral-votes-af3e6cb5f337. https://medium.com/politics-fast-and-slow/the-battle-will-come-after-the-voting-is-over-a0353b529e7. The second article, published two days before the election, explains in detail the ways Trump could reverse the election results if he lost. As Nick forecast Trump tried many of the tactics that Nick feared he would take. He did not forecast that Trump would send a mob to the Capitol, but he did predict that Trump would pressure Pence to overrule the electoral and popular votes. Neutralizing the electoral college reduces the risks of future disasters, but does not eliminate them. That would take a constitutional amendment.
Awarding the presidency to the candidate that lost the popular vote is contrary to the democratic principle that the majority should win elections. Democracy is distorted when most voters are ignored because they live in reliable Democratic or Republican states, which reduces their participation in the most important right in a democracy. The electoral college distorts domestic and foreign policy; Democratic and Republican Presidents imposed restrictions on trade to please the voters of certain swing states. In 2020 China imposed tariffs on products from swing states to put pressure on President Trump.
Swing states have a vested interest in retaining the electoral college. So does the Republican Party during the last couple of decades. Because of the fact that each state gets an extra two electors (equal to the number of Senators from each state), the electoral college over represents small rural states which have tilted more strongly Republican over the last forty years.
What to do? The requirements for a constitutional amendment are too substantial to overcome, for now. The process starts with either a two-thirds vote in both the Senate and the House of Representatives or a constitutional convention, a hurdle too high to surmount under the current political demographics.
Fifteen states and the District of Columbia formed the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact to work around the electoral college process. Under the compact each member will award all their electoral votes to whichever presidential candidate wins the overall popular vote in the 50 states and the District of Columbia. The Compact is designed to ensure that the candidate who receives the most votes nationwide is elected president, and it would come into effect only when it would guarantee that outcome. The existing members now have 196 electoral votes. They will likely lose a net two votes after reapportionment based on the 2020 census in 2021, leaving 194. Current members of the Compact are as follows with their projected 2024 electoral votes: Washington, 12; Oregon, 8; California, 55; Colorado, 9; New Mexico; 5, Illinois; 19, D.C.,3; Maryland, 10; Delaware, 3; New Jersey, 13; New York, 28; Connecticut, 7; Rhode Island, 3; Massachusetts, 11; and Vermont, 3. All these states usually voted for the Democratic presidential candidate over the last twenty years.
It will take 76 more votes to reach the 270 required to activate the Compact. There are four categories of states from which to obtain those 76 votes:
1) the remaining Democratic trifecta (the governor and a majority of both houses are from the same political party) states,
2) states with initiative powers,
3) states trending Democratic and
4) the states that voted for President Biden, but are not current members of the Compact and are not in any of the three other categories.
The remaining Democratic trifectas are Nevada, 6 votes, and Virginia, 20 votes, for a total of 26 votes.
States that have the initiative power are Nevada, 6 votes; Ohio, 18; Florida, 31; Michigan, 15; Arizona, 12; Missouri, 10; and Montana, 3; for a total of 95 forecasted electoral votes.
The third category are states in which voters have increasingly voted Democratic (election strategists call this trending Democratic) over the last 8 to 20 years, Virginia, 20; North Carolina, 15; Georgia, 16; Texas, 40; and Arizona, 12. Virginia, Georgia and North Carolina have been trending Democratic since 2000. Virginia is now a Democratic state. It may be another two presidential election cycles before a Democrat can win a state-wide office or the presidency in Texas. Texas trended Democratic since 2012 and Arizona since 2008. Source: https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/how-the-states-voted-relative-to-the-nation/. A former Republican National Committee chair predicted Texas could turn Democratic in 2024; maybe so if state officials keep up their recent bungling.
States that voted for Biden and are not in the other three categories are Minnesota, 9; Pennsylvania, 19; and Maine, 4.
Some states are in more than one category which increases the odds they will join the Compact.
Proposed Plan
The effort to win enough electoral votes to bring the Compact into effect with a sufficient margin of safety could take a decade. I think we need a margin of safety to guard against a state legislature leaving the Compact because it does not want to honor the popular vote. For example, Florida with 31 votes could become a rogue state. Therefore, I suggest a goal of 305 electoral votes. In 2021 and 2022, I suggest that advocates for reform target the state of Virginia and states with initiative power. Winning all these states gives us 309 electoral votes, which exceeds the goal of 305 electoral votes. However, Missouri has been Republican and trending more Republican since 2000; we should still try, if no other reason than to divert resources from the opposition.
Florida is not trending Democratic like Arizona, North Carolina and Virginia, but it is possible to win Florida through the initiative process. By a wide margin and against the wishes of the state legislature and governor, Florida voters expanded the voting franchise to felons who had served their time. I take that as a sign that Florida voters favor majority rule. Putting initiatives on the ballot for an independent redistricting commission, automatic voter registration and joining the Compact could change the politics of the states that don’t have them and will certainly bring out voters. The country needs a discussion of voting rights. The passage of initiatives for independent or bi-partisan redistricting in Michigan and Ohio are a sign that the Compact could be approved in purple states by attracting Democrats, independents and a few Republicans. Opposition from highly partisan Republicans is to be expected. Arizona is both trending Democratic and has the initiative power, making it a good candidate for an initiative. It will be easier to win elections if advocates from all states using the initiative agree to put the Compact on the ballot all in the same year, because the power of the opposition will be diluted. Initiatives will not win without strong organizing in each state backed by free and fair election advocates from other states. The power of these coalitions was demonstrated in the Georgia 2020 and the 2021 runoff elections.
If we fail to get to 305 votes by the end of 2022, we should consider action in Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, Maine and Texas as opportunities arise, meaning when Democrats control the state legislatures. If HR-1, For the People Act, with requirements for independent redistricting commissions in each state to prevent gerrymandering, is passed by Congress, the odds of Democratic majorities increase in these states. Pennsylvania’s supreme court prohibited gerrymandering, enabling fair redistricting, which increased the possibility of Democratic control of the state legislature and a Democratic governor. The trending Democratic states of Georgia and North Carolina might join the Compact through legislative action if and when Democrats win both houses in both states, assuming the governors are also Democrats.
In the spreadsheet below the column on the far right lists the states that I think might endorse the Compact by the end of the decade, a total of 369 votes, a margin of safety of giving us a margin of safety against a repeat of the 2020–21 lies and insurrection.
If you wish to take action, here are some sources:
https://www.fairvote.org/national_popular_vote
https://www.nationalpopularvote.com/written-explanation
https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/national-popular-vote-explained
The Brennan is an excellent research source for many issues regarding our democracy in the United States.
https://commonpower.org/ Common Power is a Seattle based citizen action organization operating in 23 states. It is now working on getting HR-1 passed. I suspect it will work on promoting the Compact this year or 2022.
